The note
Large stablecoin forecasts often connect two assumptions: supply grows dramatically, and issuers become major marginal buyers of short-dated government debt. The GENIUS framework gives the market legal footing, but its yield restriction may also constrain the float those forecasts require.
A non-yielding stablecoin competes with tokenized money-market funds that can pass through income. Rational users may keep balances in the fund layer, move briefly into a stablecoin for settlement, then exit. In that structure, the stablecoin behaves more like a wire than an account.
The analysis therefore turns on implementation, including how rulemakers define a holder. The trillion-dollar question is not only how quickly supply grows, but which legal and market-structure assumptions the forecast quietly depends on.
Sources and scope
The public note draws on Standard Chartered and JPMorgan forecasts, the White House Council of Economic Advisers’ April 2026 paper on stablecoin yield prohibition, GENIUS-related rulemaking materials and early-August 2026 market data. Market-structure analysis only.
